Geopolitics

Prediction Markets vs Intelligence Estimates: What Traders Got Right About the Iran Crisis

How prediction markets tracked the Iran crisis vs intelligence community estimates — where traders outperformed experts, and where they fell short.

The Fractured Ceasefire: Iran's Leadership Vacuum, the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, and the Architecture of a Post-War Middle East

Apr 24, 2026

Energy Transition in the Middle East: Beyond Oil Economics

Apr 22, 2026

Intelligence Brief: Cyber Warfare Capabilities Across the Region

Apr 21, 2026

Strategic Assessment: The Shifting Power Balance in the Persian Gulf

Apr 21, 2026
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