Geopolitics

Power dynamics and strategic analysis

12 articles in this category

GERD Talks Stalemate: Egypt-Ethiopia Water Math

Tensions simmer as Egypt and Ethiopia sit down for another round of talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but

May 8, 2026

Pakistan-Iran Taftan Border Reopens After 9-Day Closure

Trucks rumbled across the Taftan border into Pakistan on May 7, ending a tense 9-day shutdown sparked by cross-border sk

May 7, 2026

Iran-IAEA Talks Resume in Vienna: Stakes Revealed

Diplomats filed into Vienna's staid conference rooms on May 6, but the air crackled with urgency. Iran and the IAEA kick

May 7, 2026

The Master Sergeant and the OPLAN: How a $34,000 Polymarket Account Turned Operation Absolute Resolve Into a National Security Lesson

In the predawn hours of January 3, 2026, a US special forces team stormed a Caracas compound, capturing Venezuelan leade

May 7, 2026

The Hanson Paradox: Polymarket's $143M Insider Trading Scandal Proves the Economist Who Invented Prediction Markets Right

In the predawn hours of early January 2026, a US Special Forces team stormed Caracas, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicola

May 7, 2026

Mideast Daily Brief - 26.04.2026

Saturday's Daily Brief: Tehran's silence, the Beirut electricity vote, the Riyadh-Doha realignment, and a small story fr

Apr 25, 2026

Iran Watch #2: The financing rails - how Tehran moves money to its proxies in 2026

Promised in Iran Watch #1, delivered here. The four payment corridors keeping Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi milit

Apr 25, 2026

Mideast Daily Brief: April 25, 2026

Five datapoints from across the region this morning: Iran rhetoric, Lebanon politics, Gulf diplomacy, Egypt currency mov

Apr 25, 2026

Iran Watch #1: Tehran's quiet recalibration in the post-strike spring

Sanctions, proxy bandwidth, and a domestic politics that no longer behaves like 2024. The first entry in our Iran Watch

Apr 25, 2026

Prediction Markets vs Intelligence Estimates: What Traders Got Right About the Iran Crisis

How prediction markets tracked the Iran crisis vs intelligence community estimates — where traders outperformed experts,

Apr 24, 2026

The Fractured Ceasefire: Iran's Leadership Vacuum, the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, and the Architecture of a Post-War Middle East

Analysis of the collapsed Islamabad talks, Iran's power struggle after Khamenei's death, and what the US naval blockade

Apr 24, 2026