Houthi Red Sea Attacks: 6-Month Disruption Tally
Missiles streak across the Red Sea as a Maersk container ship veers sharply, crew scanning radars for Houthi drones. Six months since Yemen's Houthis …
Articles in
Geopolitics
Power dynamics and strategic analysis
GERD Talks Stalemate: Egypt-Ethiopia Water Math
Tensions simmer as Egypt and Ethiopia sit down for another round of talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but the water math tells a stark s…
Pakistan-Iran Taftan Border Reopens After 9-Day Closure
Trucks rumbled across the Taftan border into Pakistan on May 7, ending a tense 9-day shutdown sparked by cross-border skirmishes in late April. This d…
Iran-IAEA Talks Resume in Vienna: Stakes Revealed
Diplomats filed into Vienna's staid conference rooms on May 6, but the air crackled with urgency. Iran and the IAEA kicked off technical talks on nucl…
The Master Sergeant and the OPLAN: How a $34,000 Polymarket Account Turned Operation Absolute Resolve Into a National Security Lesson
In the predawn hours of January 3, 2026, a US special forces team stormed a Caracas compound, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife …
The Hanson Paradox: Polymarket's $143M Insider Trading Scandal Proves the Economist Who Invented Prediction Markets Right
In the predawn hours of early January 2026, a US Special Forces team stormed Caracas, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Master …
Mideast Daily Brief - 26.04.2026
Saturday's Daily Brief: Tehran's silence, the Beirut electricity vote, the Riyadh-Doha realignment, and a small story from Erbil that may matter more …
Iran Watch #2: The financing rails - how Tehran moves money to its proxies in 2026
Promised in Iran Watch #1, delivered here. The four payment corridors keeping Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi militias funded - and what each one…
Mideast Daily Brief: April 25, 2026
Five datapoints from across the region this morning: Iran rhetoric, Lebanon politics, Gulf diplomacy, Egypt currency move, and one quiet headline that…
Iran Watch #1: Tehran's quiet recalibration in the post-strike spring
Sanctions, proxy bandwidth, and a domestic politics that no longer behaves like 2024. The first entry in our Iran Watch series sets the baseline for t…
Prediction Markets vs Intelligence Estimates: What Traders Got Right About the Iran Crisis
How prediction markets tracked the Iran crisis vs intelligence community estimates — where traders outperformed experts, and where they fell short.
The Fractured Ceasefire: Iran's Leadership Vacuum, the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, and the Architecture of a Post-War Middle East
Analysis of the collapsed Islamabad talks, Iran's power struggle after Khamenei's death, and what the US naval blockade means for regional order.