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Geopolitics

The Hanson Paradox: Polymarket's $143M Insider Trading Scandal Proves the Economist Who Invented Prediction Markets Right

In the predawn hours of early January 2026, a US Special Forces team stormed Caracas, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicola

May 7, 2026

Daily Brief 04-28: The Saudi-Pakistan Security MoU - What to Read in the Silence

Yesterday's brief flagged the Saudi-Pakistan summit. Today we examine the security MoU expected to be signed quietly, wh

Apr 28, 2026

Mideast Intel Daily 04-27: Three Currents Beneath the Headlines

Continuing from yesterday's brief — three currents shaping the region this week that the wire services aren't leading wi

Apr 27, 2026
Geopolitics

Mideast Daily Brief - 26.04.2026

Saturday's Daily Brief: Tehran's silence, the Beirut electricity vote, the Riyadh-Doha realignment, and a small story fr

Apr 25, 2026
Geopolitics

Iran Watch #2: The financing rails - how Tehran moves money to its proxies in 2026

Promised in Iran Watch #1, delivered here. The four payment corridors keeping Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi milit

Apr 25, 2026
Geopolitics

Mideast Daily Brief: April 25, 2026

Five datapoints from across the region this morning: Iran rhetoric, Lebanon politics, Gulf diplomacy, Egypt currency mov

Apr 25, 2026
Geopolitics

Iran Watch #1: Tehran's quiet recalibration in the post-strike spring

Sanctions, proxy bandwidth, and a domestic politics that no longer behaves like 2024. The first entry in our Iran Watch

Apr 25, 2026